The trucking sector has had three solid years dealing with a freight recession, and 2026 finally looks like the year the tide will turn in the industry’s favor. Freight volumes remained almost unchanged throughout 2024 and 2025, high capacity held back rates, and both large carriers and smaller players struggled.
However, times are changing. Capacity is tightening as carriers leave the market, rates are rising gradually, and there are first signals that demand might pick up again soon. For truckers, fleet owners, and cargo owners, it has never been more important to stay informed about trucking industry news.
Here’s what the industry experts predict for rates and fleets.
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Driver Supply Faces Structural Headwinds
Underneath the story about rate and capacity lies another, more long-term problem that may shape the future of the trucking business: recent trucking industry news highlights a deepening driver shortage across the sector.
Interestingly, it is not an emerging trend but rather an existing problem made worse by new regulations. Driver shortage issues due to the enforcement of English proficiency laws and limits on non-domiciled drivers may remove as many as 200,000 – 250,000 drivers from active work, according to calculations presented in Logistics Management’s 2026 rate forecast.
This number can be added to those leaving the driving business due to their age, a lack of recruits from CDL schools, and difficulty retaining experienced employees in a market where drivers’ profits have fallen over the past three years. Organizations such as the American Trucking Associations (ATA) have recognized that driver shortages represent a major limitation in the industry.
Freight Rates Are Finally Showing Signs of Life
More than three years after spot rates remained below contract rates, the margin is now being narrowed. According to the March 2026 U.S. Bank Freight Payment Index report, spot linehaul rates increased by more than 23% between March 2025 and February 2026, compared to the increase in contract rates by only 5% during the same period. The narrowing of the margin, from an average of 39 cents per mile last year to 11 cents per mile now, indicates that the market is slowly regaining balance.
DAT Freight & Analytics, one of the most-watched sources of trucking information, characterized the current state of affairs as a “freight market rebalancing.” The next 12 months will see dry van contract rates increase by almost 8%, and spot rates increase by nearly 12%. This news is good for carriers that have remained resilient throughout the recession; however, DAT Freight & Analytics is quick to point out that we still don’t have an extended period on the horizon.
Carrier Attrition Is Reshaping the Capacity Landscape
Perhaps one of the most significant narratives of the past two years has been the carriers’ departure from the industry. There were 2,648 fewer operating authorities in 2025. Within a span of 24 months, over 19,000 operating authorities have left the industry, which contrasts with the approximately 100,000 authorities gained during the pandemic in 2020-2022.
The relevance of this trend is that available capacity becomes limited. If demand increases for any reason, such as restocking, production growth, or increased consumer activity, less truck capacity would become available. RXO industry analysts believe that the rapid loss of operating authorities may have put the industry in a position where the latter part of 2026 will be tough for shippers with increased rate volatility.
Tariffs and Trade Policy Are Wildcards for Demand
An overview of the current state of the freight market wouldn’t be complete without mentioning tariffs. The ambiguity of trade policies created uncertainty about the demand situation, beginning in 2025 and extending through 2026. As tariffs are one of the factors influencing imported shipments, including consumer goods, which contribute greatly to truckload freight, retail imports that usually help boost truckload freight volumes in Q4 were restrained by heavy front-loading in the first six months of 2025 due to the expectation of rising tariffs.
However, domestic manufacturing was down for most of 2025; recently, though, the Manufacturing PMI indicated an encouraging recovery in new orders for January 2026. Whether the trend continues is likely to influence freight demand in the industrial segment, particularly flatbed and specialized trucking.
Diesel Prices Offer a Rare Bright Spot
After years of volatile fuel prices rattling fleet budgets, diesel costs are trending in a favorable direction. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) projects average on-highway diesel prices at around $3.47 per gallon in 2026 — roughly a 5% drop compared to 2025 levels. Lower fuel costs reduce carriers’ operational burden and lower fuel surcharges for shippers, helping preserve freight volumes in price-sensitive sectors.
That said, fuel remains one of the most volatile variables in any freight forecast. Geopolitical disruptions, OPEC production decisions, and refinery issues — particularly on the West Coast, where California refinery closures are tightening regional supply — can quickly reverse favorable trends. Fleet managers are wise to hedge their fuel costs and monitor EIA projections closely rather than building long-term strategies around current price levels.
Conclusion
The trucking business is far from being out of the woods, but there are fewer and fewer trees to worry about. As freight prices rise from multiyear lows, the market becomes tight, favoring only carriers with discipline. Although tariffs, trade policies, and driver shortages will continue to play a role as wild cards, the industry is on a different path now, one from which the potential for a slow recovery is becoming increasingly apparent. For truckers and drivers who have endured the tough times, it looks like their opportunity has arrived.
