The prospects for the Tokyo Games are once again uncertain just months ahead of its opening. The situation has not improved since last May when its postponement was officially announced. The debate regarding this summer’s Olympics is intensifying while the Japanese government and the Olympic committee are still looking for ways to move forward with the event.
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Latest public opinion poll
The latest public opinion poll found that 86% of Japanese people think the game should not go ahead. 51% of the respondents said that the Olympics should be postponed further. Another 35 % said the game should be canceled. Under normal circumstances Japanese people should have been the most enthusiastic audience by hosting the upcoming game but the covid-19 pandemic completely changed their expectations and sentiments. The majority of the populations feel that it would be realistically difficult at this point.
In contrast to the public opinion, the government and the International Olympic Committee (IOC) are still holding a grudge to make it happen even without or reduced spectators. Holding the games without spectators would result in a huge economic loss of up to 2.4 trillion yen. In case of cancellation, the estimated economic loss is as high as 4.5 trillion yen.
The phantom of the 1940 Tokyo Games
This is not the second but the third time that Tokyo became the host for the Olympics. Before the 1964 Tokyo Games, there was the lost 1940 Tokyo Olympics, the only game in history that was cancelled by the host country. Just before World War II, the Tokyo Games were destined to be at the mercy of the international political turmoil. The 1940 Olympics was canceled because of the Sino-Japanese War.
Historically, the postponement or cancellation of Olympic games only happened during war time. There were 3 summer games cancelled in the past but all because of war: the 1916 Berlin Games, the 1940 Tokyo Games, the 1944 London Games. In 1908 Italy gave up hosting the Rome Olympics due to the destructive aftermath of an eruption of Mount Vesuvius. However, the game was still carried out by changing the venue to London.
Predictions on the 2021 Tokyo Olympics
Even the majority of Japanese public remains doubtful whether the Tokyo Games will take place or not. No one can really make predictions for sure at this point. Last year, at the peak of the coronavirus outbreak, a number of sportsbooks correctly predicted the result in favor of postponement of the Tokyo Games. Oddsmakers continue to take bets on chances of the 2020 Tokyo Olympics. There are bookmakers targeting Japanese players as well. This year, however, bookies are rather offering wagering options on yes/no – whether the 2021 Tokyo Olympics will take place with spectators. At the moment, the odds heavily favor spectators being allowed to attend.
